Wednesday, October 29, 2025
Futures: LME copper opened overnight at $10,941.5/mt, touched an initial low of $10,935/mt, then the price center rose continuously to a high of $11,048/mt, finally consolidating sideways to close at $11,029.5/mt, a gain of 0.26%, with trading volume reaching 22,000 lots and open interest reaching 323,000 lots. The most-traded SHFE copper 2512 contract opened overnight at 87,220 yuan/mt, also touching its low there, then the price center rose continuously, approaching the session end to touch a high of 88,120 yuan/mt, finally closing at 87,910 yuan/mt, a gain of 0.25%, with trading volume reaching 81,000 lots and open interest reaching 283,000 lots.
[SMM Copper Morning Conference Minutes] News:
(1) On Wednesday, October 29, Southern Copper, one of Peru's largest copper producers, stated that its $1.8 billion Tia Maria mine project is 23% complete and maintains the target for commissioning in 2027. The project is expected to produce 120,000 mt of copper cathode annually.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On October 28, SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month 2511 contract were at a discount of 120 yuan/mt to a premium of 10 yuan/mt, with the average price quoted at a discount of 55 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the SMM #1 copper cathode price ranged from 87,620 to 88,190 yuan/mt. The SHFE copper 2511 contract briefly surged to 88,260 yuan/mt in early trading before starting to decline, plummeting sharply to 87,720 yuan/mt near 11:00 am, then falling steeply to around 87,420 yuan/mt near the morning close. The inter-month price spread ranged between C50 and C20 yuan/mt, with import losses for SHFE front-month copper nearing 1,000 yuan/mt. Looking ahead to today, copper prices saw a slight pullback, improving market procurement sentiment, but just-in-time procurement remains dominant. Low-priced material attracted traders to stockpile, and spot discounts for SHFE copper are expected to see limited downward adjustment tomorrow.
(2) Guangdong: On October 28, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract were at a discount of 30 yuan/mt to a premium of 30 yuan/mt, with the average premium at 0 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 100 yuan/mt to a discount of 60 yuan/mt, with the average discount at 80 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price for Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 88,140 yuan/mt, flat from the previous day, while the average price for SX-EW copper was 88,060 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt from the previous day. Overall, both inventory and copper prices pulled back, suppliers refused to budge on prices but actual transactions remained poor, with overall trading weak.
(3) Imported Copper: On October 28, warrant prices were $30-40/mt, QP November, average price flat from the previous trading day; B/L prices were $42-64/mt, QP November, average price flat from the previous trading day; EQ copper (CIF B/L) was at -$14/mt to $0/mt, QP November, average price down $2/mt from the previous trading day. Quotes refer to cargoes arriving in late October and early November.
(4) Secondary copper: On October 28, the price of recycled copper raw materials fell 100 yuan/mt MoM, with the price of bare bright copper in Guangdong at 78,700-78,900 yuan/mt, down 100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 3,975 yuan/mt, down 404 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,710 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, as copper prices continued to decline in the afternoon, secondary copper rod enterprises received an increasing number of orders from traders of recycled copper raw materials. Many secondary copper rod enterprises reported that just-in-time procurement of raw materials reached 800-1,000 mt during the day, with some being short orders. Secondary copper rod enterprises indicated that in the early stage of the copper price correction, raw material procurement would be relatively cautious, and restocking would be considered only after prices stabilized.
(5) Inventories: On October 27, LME copper cathode inventories decreased 1,400 mt to 134,575 mt; on October 28, SHFE warrant inventories increased 454 mt to 35,846 mt.
Prices: On the macro front, the US government shutdown continued, increasing market uncertainty and putting the US dollar under pressure, which supported copper prices. ADP released its weekly estimate of the US National Employment Report, showing signs of recovery in the US job market in October. The market is currently widely focused on the US Fed interest rate decision early Thursday.
On the fundamentals side, supply side, high-quality copper and SX-EW copper were in short supply, with overall tight supply. Demand side, although copper prices slightly corrected, market procurement sentiment rebounded limitedly, and just-in-time procurement remained the main approach. Overall, supported by optimistic expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts, copper prices are expected to have support below today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this to replace independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]
